USDINR: The Indian Rupee fell on Monday after the Indian Government revised the growth target downwards. Initially The USD/INR pair was trading flat as markets were quite ahead of RBI policy meet. However the growth downgrade triggered demand for the greenback. India's economy will grow by about 5.8% this year, representing the slowest rate of growth in a decade, according to revised official forecasts. The country's finance ministry said Monday it was expecting India's growth rate to accelerate slightly in the second half of its financial year, which ends in March 2013. But gross domestic product will still only expand by 5.7% to 5.9% annually, compared with an earlier forecast of 7.6%.
The last year growth was weaker was 2002-03. Adding further to Dollar strength was demand from Oil companies and FCCB redemption of $133 million this month. RBI will come out with its monetary policy review today. According to Bloomberg survey, market expects a 25 basis points cut to CRR as the same time holding policy rates steady. If RBI does cut interest rates, Rupee will extend its fall against the Greenback. Markets do not expect a policy rate cut, thus Rupee may not strengthen as much following the announcement. USDINR has immediate resistance of 54.90- 55.30. Downside should be capped around 54.50 levels.
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USDINR has resistance at 54.90-55.30: Sharekhan
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