On Tuesday, The Reserve Bank of India has allowed banks to borrow the greenback from the central bank under a swap facility for enhancing the credit flow to the export sector. Looking at this rupee has minimize its losses to close at 54.625, down by 0.38 percent. Asian equities ended on a mix note while domestic indices moved up due to huge foreign inflow, SENSEX surged 0.40% to close at 19986.82 and NIFTY advanced by 0.54% to close at 6056.6. European stock markets closed on a weaker note due to Germany CPI has grown similar to expectation along with shared currency euro moved down by 0.12% to close at 1.329. US stock markets ended on a weak note due to declined manufacturing sectors. The Dollar index close on a flat note 79.751 against major currencies. The call money market closed on a higher note of 8.05, up by 0.63%.
Outlook:
The euro currency extended its weakness to trade at 1.3286, down by 0.14%. Asian equities are also trading down especially Chinese's equities due to declined FDI flow on slowdown of Chinese economy growth. This may track by rupee to open on a weak note while swap facility provided by the Reserve Bank of India for enhancing the credit flow to the export sectors may support rupee to limit its losses. Going ahead Europe will release CPI index which is expected to have negative impact on shared currency euro. Moreover US will release Total Net TIC Flows and industrial production data which are expected to increase and may support USD to extend its gains. Overall we believe rupee to stay weak.
USDINR Spot-
As expected USDINR retraced after testing the supports of a trend line and finally settled at 54.61 up by 0.23%. The pair is still trading below the major EMA's and is witnessing resistance of the same around 54.70 level. Convincing break above 54.70-54.80 may drag the pair to the further higher levels of 54.87-55.00 levels in the intraday session. Momentum indicator 14 periods RSI has made a crossover of 6 period moving averages and is indicating upside potential in the pair to move higher. For the day we anticipate USDINR to breach the moving average resistance and may test resistance of 54.87-55.00 levels. So we recommend buying on dips.
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