On Thursday, the petroleum ministry authorized oil marketing companies to make fuel price corrections from time to time. It also allowed increasing number of subsidized LPG cylinders available to households to nine a year from the current cap of six. The price of LPG cylinder will remain unchanged (Bloomberg). This news supported rupee to moved up by 0.55% to close at 54.39 against the USD. Asian equities ended on a weak note while domestic stock markets moved up on the same news mentioned above, SENSEX weighed up by 0.74% to close at 19964.03 and NIFTY advanced by 0.62% to 6039.2. The European stock market ended on a higher note of around 0.44% along with shared currency euro moved up by 0.65% to close at 1.3367 on an anticipation of Spain debt auction and Spanish banks are planning to pay back money borrowed from the European Central about a year ago. The US stock market ended on a weaker note due to increased joless claim. However Dollar index closed at 79.742, up by 0.12%.
Outlook:
The Indian rupee that gained by 0.59% last day is very much likely to continue this morning. At least rupee should open strong owing to strong euro and Asian markets. This morning Asian markets are trading up by more than 1%, especially the Chinese stocks are higher after its 4Q GDP expanded to 7.9% and industrial production rose to 10.30%. Besides, steps taken in the domestic market would continue to support to rupee. So, we are expecting another good day for rupee. From the economic data front there are no releases from euro area while US will release its Michigan confidence data and that is likely to support USD. Overall, rupee is expected to continue its appreciation. Nevertheless, we recommend selling USD/INR at a marginal rise.
USDINR Spot-
On Thursday, USDINR tested 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 54.15 for the range (51.35-55.88) and settled just above it by recouping slightly at 54.38 levels. for today we expect USDINR could break the support of 38.2% i.e. 54.15 and convincing trade below this mark could drag the pair to the further lower levels of 53.94 then 53.65 level of 50% retracement level. For today, we anticipate USDINR to remain weak in the initial hours and could see slight minor pull back in the late sessions of the day. So we recommend to reaming on sell side.
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