According to CNBC-TV18 poll, the CPI range could be anywhere between 8.3 and 8.7 percent but one needs to watch out for the core CPI which has been sub 8 percent since February 2014.
The IIP and CPI data that is expected today may not be much in focus because all eyes will be on the exit poll results.
However, since the April consumer price index (CPI) is going to be more important than the March Index of Industrial Production (IIP), there is an expectation of an uptick to around 8.5 percent for the month versus 8.31 percent on a month-on-month basis.
Since January this year the CIP has been ranging above the 8 percent mark.
According to CNBC-TV18 poll, the range could be anywhere between 8.3 and 8.7 percent but one needs to watch out for the core CPI which has been sub 8 percent since February 2014. The uptick expected in the CPI (M-o-M) is on the expectation of food inflation coming around 9.5 percent versus 9.1 percent on M-o-M basis.
The hike in food inflation is due to the impact of hail storm which led to increase in rice prices to the tune of 5 percent. The vegetable inflation too, which leads the food inflation is expected to rise to 17-18 percent as against 16.8 percent on a M-o-M basis. The M-o-M mandi prices have risen 13.6 percent in April 2014
Index of Industrial Production (IIP)
The IIP for March is expected to decline of 1.66 percent versus decline of close to 2 percent that we saw in February. It is expected to be in a range of minus 0.9 to minus 2.2 percent for the entire month. It has basically been on a decline from April 2013 upticl now. We are down 0.1 percent in terms of the total IIP data.
However, for this month there is a high base effect because it grew 4.3 percent in March 2013. There is also a decline in exports, which could actually reflect in the data - it was down 3.7 percent for the month of March. But there could be some amount of respite for two-wheelers on back of strong production, which was 17 percent in March versus 9 percent in February.
There seems to be no respite for manufacturing too. It has been at a 28-month low with a decline seen in 13 out of 22 sub sectors. Similarly, capital goods, consumer durables too contracted for the 15tth month in a row.
Moreover, for the IIP growth too there is not much from the core sector March number, which grew only 2.5 percent
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